How to lie with statistics [5] - Darrell Huff

Chapter 5 - The Gee-Whiz Graph

The chapter discusses how visual representations of data, particularly graphs, can be manipulated to exaggerate or downplay trends, leading to misinterpretations.

Key Points:

  • Manipulating the Y-Axis: One common tactic is to manipulate the scale of the y-axis (the vertical axis) of a graph. By starting the y-axis at a non-zero value or by choosing a compressed scale, small changes can appear much larger than they actually are. This can create a dramatic visual effect, making a minor increase or decrease seem significant.

    • Example: A company wants to show a dramatic increase in sales. They present a graph where the y-axis starts at $95,000 instead of $0. A sales increase from $100,000 to $110,000 looks like a steep climb, even though it's only a 10% increase.
  • Omitting the Zero Baseline: Failing to start the y-axis at zero can exaggerate differences between data points. For example, a graph showing a slight increase in sales might appear as a steep climb if the y-axis starts at a high value. This can mislead viewers into thinking the growth is much more substantial than it truly is.

    • Example: A news report wants to emphasize the difference in test scores between two schools. They present a bar graph where the y-axis starts at 80%. A school with an average score of 85% appears much better than a school with an average score of 82%, even though the actual difference is small.
  • Using Pictograms: Pictograms, which use images to represent quantities, can be misleading due to their two-dimensional nature. When one image is doubled in size to represent a doubling of quantity, it actually quadruples the area, creating a visual exaggeration. This can make differences seem larger than they are.

    • Example: An infographic wants to show that the number of cars on the road has doubled. They use a pictogram of a car and double its size. However, doubling the size of the car actually quadruples its area, visually exaggerating the increase.
  • Ignoring the Context: Graphs can be misleading if they don't provide context for the data. For example, a graph showing a sharp increase in crime rates might be alarming, but it becomes less so if the actual number of crimes is relatively small or if the increase is following a period of unusually low crime rates.

    • Example: A graph shows a sharp increase in the number of shark attacks over the past year. However, it fails to mention that the increase is from 5 attacks to 10 attacks, which is still a relatively small number. The graph also doesn't provide context about the total number of people swimming in the ocean, which could have increased as well.

The Importance of Critical Evaluation:

The chapter emphasizes the importance of carefully evaluating graphs and charts. Readers should pay attention to the scales used, whether the y-axis starts at zero, and whether the visual representation accurately reflects the underlying data. By understanding these techniques, readers can avoid being misled by deceptive graphs and make more informed decisions based on accurate information